Die deutsche Gesellschaft für Virologie warnt vor einem Kontrollverlust: Ab einer bestimmten Schwelle könne auch in bisher unkritischen Regionen die Kontrolle über das Infektionsgeschehen verloren gehen, heisst es in einer Stellungnahme. Die Experten um Charité-Virologe Christian Drosten machen sich Sorgen wegen der „explosiven Infektionsdynamik“, als deren Treiber sie Familienfeste, Hochzeitsfeiern und andere Feierlichkeiten sehen.
Ich habe einen interessanten Artikel gefunden, der dieses Thema aufgreift: Dort heißt es:
„Achieving herd immunity would require recovered people to have lasting immunity, but scientists do not yet know how long immunity lasts. Reinfections are rare, but have occurred. Though much has been learned about the immune response to SARS-CoV-2, and the importance of antibodies and T cells, there is no test a person can take to determine if they are immune or to know if their immunity has waned.
Without a vaccine, the human cost to reach herd immunity would be profound. There is a range of models for herd immunity thresholds, depending on how much weight is given to vaccine efficacy, degree of social distancing, and how long immunity lasts. Most models, however, indicate it would require 60% to 80% of the population to be infected, which would be a minimum of nearly 200 million cases in the U.S. alone. Approximately 8% of the U.S. population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2, based upon the prevalence of antibodies, so significantly more infections would be required, leading to at least 510,000 deaths based on the current fatality rate and equations for herd immunity.
Relying on herd immunity alone would overwhelm hospitals. And infections, hospitalizations, and deaths would continue to disproportionately impact Black people, Indigenous people, and people of color — something the declaration conveniently omits.“
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